To quote Ron Burgundy: "Well, that escalated quickly."
I haven't read anything this week I didn't already know three weeks ago, but apparently football writers outside of Minnesota have decided that the Vikings-Percy Harvin situation is suddenly a big story and that the Vikes are really, really open to trading him.
I made my feelings known on this subject back in December when Harvin was placed on injured reserve and people first started questioning his long-term future with the Vikings. Trading Harvin makes little sense from a personnel standpoint. Minnesota's passing attack was the worst in the NFL in 2012 and the team needs to add - not subtract - receiving weapons to the roster.
What really sucks is that there is little chance the Vikings will get anything close to fair value for Harvin by trading him. When the Vikings traded Randy Moss in 2005 they got the #7 overall pick from the Raiders, as well as linebacker Napolean Harris and a 7th round pick. When the Vikings traded for Jared Allen in 2008, they gave up their first round pick and two third rounders to Kansas City. If the Vikings are really shopping Harvin, with the way the new rookie salary scale works teams are reluctant to give up first round picks. The chance to acquire a blue-chip player and have him under your control at a relatively cheap rate for four years is not something any team is going to give away - even for a talent like Harvin. What I've read is the Vikings might only get a second rounder (and perhaps another late-round pick or two), and maybe only a third rounder for Harvin. That's a pretty poor haul for a guy who was being talked about as a potential MVP candidate before Adrian Peterson actually won the MVP.
Still, as much as it doesn't make sense from the outside (and, yes, I realize there are plenty of questions about Harvin's temper and his attitude), I believe we have to accept that when the 2013 starts, Harvin will not be wearing a Minnesota Vikings uniform. The "news" this week isn't actually new. But it is being reported by plenty of media outlets. And as we've seen in so many other instances, when stories and rumors start circulating about such-and-such a guy being unhappy and about to be traded, that player usually does get traded.
I also think we have to look at what head coach Leslie Frazier and general manager Rick Spielman had to say about Harvin of late. In a recent interview Frazier said he hoped "everything will work out" with Harvin and the Vikings. And when Spielman was asked whether he wanted Harvin to be a Viking in 2013, he didn't answer the question. Instead he said this:
"We love Percy Harvin as a football player. Everybody sees what he does for our football team. Percy Harvin is a blue-chip player and he is a game-changer. In fact he
was on track to be a potential MVP. We were very fortunate to have two
players, and we had one that did win the MVP award [Adrian Peterson]. So we're very fortunate to have two players of that caliber on our football team."
Hmmm. As ESPN's Kevin Seifert noted in this blog post, both Frazier and Spielman had the chance to declare that Harvin was going to be a Viking in 2013 and beyond. They didn't do that. And when two of the big decision-makers in the organization go out of their way to avoid saying that Harvin will play for the Vikings again, I take that as a clear sign we've seen the last of him in a Vikings uniform.
Some fans think Frazier and Spielman's comments are just a negotiating ploy by the Vikings. I say they are trying to get fans prepared for the day they trade Harvin away for a second or third round pick.
I hope you're wrong about ownership preparing the fanbase. I found some hope in Arif's off-season plan over at DN:
ReplyDelete"I am not trading Harvin. I think he can be extended during the 2013 season (a reason to keep the cap space clean, even with carryover space). While I think the Vikings are shopping him for a trade, that could be just to determine his value (which can be leverage in a negotiation or a serious offer). The Vikings have the ability to franchise Harvin (twice) and will likely receive a third-round compensatory pick if he walks. It is hard to combat that leverage."
If Harvin is smart enough to realize that he will get the most money in the long run by putting up impressive numbers with a good attitude in however much more time he spends as a Viking, then that's good news for everyone involved now. And who knows - maybe he'll start having fun again and want to stick around.
If he does leave this season, I kinda hope he has a hard time producing against defenses that aren't worried about Adrian Peterson.
And I hope that your hopes of me being wrong work out. I am growing increasingly pessimistic, however. Along with the fact losing Harvin weakens the Vikings short-term, I'd also miss watching Harvin play. He's one of those players that when he gets the ball in his hands, you just feel something special is about to happen.
DeleteI completely agree with what you said about that special feeling - I think I held my breath every time he got the ball.
DeleteYeah, I'd miss watching him, and I'd feel sad about not cheering for him when he's playing for another team (unless their opponent is some hated rival).
First off, I agree with you and think we end up losing him for far less than he's worth. And he goes on to light the league on fire with a good QB and offensive game plan.
ReplyDeleteI love everything about the way he plays the game, but I'd be scared to death to pay that guy #1 money. Even if he wasn't a head case, he's small and he's not going to last forever with migraines/health issues and the way he plays. It really stinks, but since we're not going to get anything close to fair value for him I say keep him another year and see what happens. I'd rather roll the dice and let him hold out than give him away. If he wants to get paid by another team he'll have to play ball at some point. Now is the locker room headache worth all that, especially with a fragile QB like Ponder? Probably not, which is why they give him away. I'm praying they can at least get a 2nd.
ETR:
DeleteAs far as Harvin's health, the migraines haven't been an issue for the last two seasons and while he's not tall for a football player, he's thickly built. He can handle the punishment and he gives out more than he takes.
The Vikings may very well keep him even if they don't want to extend him in 2013 and can't get fair value in a trade (and fair value to me means at least two high draft picks - including a #1.) One interesting thing I learned this week is with the new CBA, if a player is under contract and holds out, not only does he get fined like a motherfucker, the contract can be "tolled" on him - meaning they tack on an extra year for the year he missed. Not sure when the toll kicks in - one game, three, eight or all 16 - but that's a mighty big incentive for Harvin to play for the Vikings even if he isn't extended or traded. He might even be a good soldier in that case because he wouldn't want to hurt his marketability by being a pain in the ass. Interesting times for sure.
Yeah I remember the ridiculous fines for holding out (think MJD last year) but I didn't know about the extra year. I'm more worried about migraines becoming an issue again if he's not happy, they're an easy out for him not to get fined. And I know he's jacked for a little dude but I still want my #1 WR to be a big target. I should have been clearer. Healthwise I admit he's tough as nails and usually plays through whatever but it seems like he always has a nagging shoulder or ankle injury. He was banged up a lot at Florida too and missed games. That reckless style has consequences.
ReplyDelete