Should the 49ers Alex Smith wear the color purple in 2013?

Back in 2007 when I foolishly started the Grant's Tomb blog, there were a few Vikings sites I visited regularly because I liked what their bloggers had to say. Some of those blogs are no longer active and Defensive Indifference, which was written by Jason Winter, is one of them. A few months ago I tracked Jason down and tried to get him to join the Kick Ass Blog team. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to convince him to do so. But Jason, who has shifted to blogging about gaming at Wintry Mix, said he might be able to whip up a guest post now and then. Earlier this month, he wrote about a potentially historic season for Percy Harvin. In his second guest post for KAB, he focuses on the Vikings quarterback situation.  

Minnesota Vikings fans should be looking very closely at the quarterback controversy in San Francisco.

It seems all but certain now that head coach Jim Harbaugh's choice for the future is second-year player Colin Kaepernick. Incumbent Alex Smith's concussion gave Harbaugh the opportunity to start Kaepernick, who's 2-0 in two starts.

What does this mean for longtime 49er and #1 overall pick Alex Smith? He signed a three-year contract earlier this season, but if the 49ers like Kaepernick going forward, it seems unlikely that they would want to keep Smith around, both with his salary and with his likely rancor at being passed over while not doing anything wrong on the football field. This being the NFL, it's tough to tell exactly how much money is guaranteed, but here's what I found on Smith's contract:

Signed a three-year, $24 million contract. The deal contains $9 million guaranteed -- an initial roster bonus of $3 million, all of Smith's 2012 base salary, and $1 million of his 2013 salary. Another $9 million is available through incentives, though $5.25 million of them are "unlikely to be earned." An annual $250,000 workout bonus is available. 2012: $5 million, 2013: $7.5 million (+ $1 million roster bonus due in March), 2014: $7.5 million, 2015: Free Agent

So it looks as if Smith would be set to earn $16 million in 2013-14, though it also says only $9 million – Smith's 2012 salary of $5 million, a roster bonus of $3 million, and $1 million of his 2013 salary – is guaranteed. Even at a full $16 million over two years, that's not bad for a starting-caliber quarterback, and depending on the exact wording of his contract, Smith might come cheaper.

And that could be just what the Minnesota Vikings need.

Now, I'm not going to try and sell Vikings fans on the “all we need is a quarterback” bandwagon that's led to us trotting out quick fixes for years, like Brad Johnson, Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, and the like. But effective quarterbacking is still important, and it's hard to believe at this point that Christian Ponder is the answer. At the very least, the Vikings need a capable alternative in 2013. Joe Webb is unlikely, the team isn't likely to draft high enough (and this year's QB class is considered rather weak), and there isn't expected to be a significant free agent available. Smith might be the most capable QB available, especially if Kaepernick secures the starting job.

But is he worth it? Smith was a bad QB for a while and is still considered a bust as a #1 overall pick, especially with Aaron Rodgers being drafted later in the first round in 2005. But he's re-invented himself over the last two years as a solid QB who doesn't make mistakes, which is exactly what a team with a strong running game and defense, like the 49ers, needs.

Over the last two years, on 662 pass attempts – a little more than one season for most guys, but a season and a half for the run-focused 49ers – Smith has 30 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions and a 95.1 passer rating. And I don't think it's a complete fluke; even in 2009-10, he had 32 TDs and 22 picks, which isn't exceptional but is a far cry from his previous seasons.

The one blemish on his stats is his sack rate, which has ballooned from 7.8% from 2005-10 to 9.3% in 2011-12. But maybe that comes with throwing fewer interceptions. Maybe Smith is taking more sacks instead of throwing the ball up for grabs and having it get picked off. Neither is great, but I'd rather take the sacks.

Finally, unlike most of our short-term QB fixes in the past, Smith is still young. He'll turn 29 next May and could theoretically have a lot of football left in him. The 49ers realize this, of course, and will demand high trade value for him, but I think he'd be at least worth a second-round pick.

Would Smith's style fit with the Vikings? The team's running game is comparable to/better than the 49ers', though the 49ers clearly have the better defense. And maybe Jim Harbaugh is just a really good coach, and Smith wouldn't do as well with another guy calling the shots.

But he's likely to be the best quarterback available in 2013, and the Vikings can't go into next season with Christian Ponder and expect success. Something has to be done, and this might be it.

National Friday League, Week 13

Vikings-Packers Preview
The Vikings were swept by the Packers in '06, '07, '10, and '11. Mike McCarthy is 9-3 against the Vikings. The '09 NFC Title Game and the Packers' Super Bowl win in '10 followed by a 15-1 season in '11 did a lot to crush the spiritual energy I used to take to this rivalry. I'll try to buck myself up with some William Ernest Henley: "Under the bludgeonings of chance/My head is bloody, but unbowed."

Lambeau Field is nowhere near as scary as Soldier Field (hell, the Vikes won their only playoff game there, and handily at that). And if you're looking to talk yourself into a Viking win, I've got you covered.

--Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a league-high 37 times (this doesn't terribly comfort me: the Vikes could get 10 sacks and still be burned by Rodgers on 40 other plays).

--Adrian Peterson averages 5.8 yards per carry and leads the league with 1,236 and 1,421 yards from scrimmage and is capable of taking over a game at any time (this doesn't terribly comfort me: he took over the Seattle game as much as any RB possibly could but a poor defensive performance and completely absent passing game still meant the Seahawks won handily).

--In their last game (against the Giants), the Packer run defense looked ungodly bad, as the Giants' o-line opened big holes and Giant RBs evaded potential tacklers with apparent ease (OK, this comforts me--as long as the Vikes are in the game long enough to keep running).

--The Packers' current RBs average 3.1, 3.4, and 3.4 yards per carry (but I've seen plenty of bozos run over the Viking defense, and it's not like the Packers try to beat teams with their running game anyway).

--There are a lot of players on that Packer injury report (Clay Matthews' absence would make a big difference.

If the Vikings lose to the Packers for the fifth straight time, we can remind ourselves that the Vikes have a new stadium coming and they'll be here for years, and if we're patient our time for being better than the Packers will come again.

Choose an insult against Viking fans and stick with it.
If you're a non-Viking fan (like, say, a Packer fan) and you want to make fun of Viking fans, that's fine. But either we're fair-weather fans lacking loyalty to stick it out with a loser, or we root for a loser and are thus ourselves losers. We can't possibly be both. Lately I've been getting confused. It used to be that the go-to insult was our fair-weather unwillingness to stay with a losing team, but lately as the team has, um, sucked, the go-to insult is more about how pathetic we are rooting for a losing team. I mean, I get that I'm an inferior fan--I just want a single, consistent reason I'm an inferior fan.

Thomas Hardy's "Hap"
This week my lit class read Thomas Hardy's poem "Hap." Here's a simplified reading: the poet considers his own suffering, and says he would be comforted if he knew a malevolent god had willed his suffering. But this is not the case: it is chance that has made the poet unhappy. What galls him is that happiness or sadness is a matter of random hazard: the same indifferent happenstance that withholds happiness from him could have just as easily granted him happiness. There's no good reason for him to suffer while others are happy.

When I teach this poem, I mention it is my lot in life to root for the Minnesota Vikings. Why am I a Viking fan? Largely geography. And that is chance: I could have just as easily been born somewhere else. But I happen to be born where I root for a team that never wins the Super Bowl. And I ask the students, do you root for the Green Bay Packers? Good for you: you get to root for a team that sometimes wins Super Bowls. You didn't do anything to deserve that: it could have just as easily been different. But by happenstance, you get to be happy while I get to be unhappy.

I teach in Wisconsin; these examples usually go over well (at least students smile and laugh in the right spots--I think they help illustrate the poem to lead to better understanding as well!). If the Vikings win the Super Bowl someday, I may have to abandon some of my standby poetic illuminations. And that will be fine.

Other Interesting Games
Week 13 Games

Seahawks-Bears. Jay Cutler is growing on me. You want people like him in the NFL, don't you? The on and off the field intrigue is harmless, humorous, and interesting. Keep up the good work, Jay Cutler.  Just be you, man.

Patriots-Dolphins. I have this suspicion the Dolphins are kind of good. Not beat-the-Patriots good, but kind of good.

Buccaneers-Broncos. I will enjoy this game a lot more if these teams decide to abandon their bland, robot uniforms and go back to their unis from the '80s and '90s, when men were men and they wore winking swashbucklers and drunken horses on their helmets. Seriously, when I look through old football cards I always stop wistfully at cards of old Bucs and Broncos. Nostalgia is a pleasant drug.

Steelers-Ravens. If Ben Roethlisberger can come back and play well, I'll be starting Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace and feel good as I fight for a fantasy championship. If Charlie Batch is starting, I try to decide whether starting Brown or Wallace will hurt my team less. This is like deciding which of one's own testicles to punch.

Cowboys-Eagles. If you like watching the NFC East in primetime, you are probably a pretty happy person most of the time.

Giants-Washington. If you like watching the NFC East in primetime, you are probably a pretty happy person most of the time.

Weekend
Have a good one, everybody. Except Packer fans.

College wide receivers to pay attention to during the holidays

I don't like to dream about the NFL draft when the Minnesota Vikings are still in the playoff race. But as I watch the coaching staff run out guys like Michael Jenkins, Devin Aromashodu and Stephen Burton, and then expect those three to consistently beat NFL cornerbacks, I find myself closing my eyes and wishing some kind of wide receiver messiah would save the Vikings passing game.

If that messiah exists, he's likely playing for some college football team right now and the Vikings will have to draft him in April of 2013. As we transition into the holiday and college bowl season, here are some wide receivers who are either draft eligible – or who might be if they leave college early – that Vikings fans might want to pay attention to over the next month or so. In my view, wide receiver is the team's biggest weakness and is something management must address in 2013. 

I admit it's not an exhaustive list, and a lot of these guys I haven't even seen play. But in sussing out stats and scouting reports, I was looking for big wide receivers – six feet tall or more and 200-plus pounds – who could serve as that big, red zone/vertical threat split end the Vikings have been lacking pretty much since Randy Moss was traded. Maybe one of the following guys can be that player and serve as Percy Harvin's wingman in 2013 – and beyond.

Terrence Williams (Baylor - senior) 6'2, 205 pounds
2012 stats – 89 catches, 1,693 yards, 19 yards per catch (ypc), 12 Tds
Williams has the size and speed (timed at 4.49 in the 40) that the Vikings are looking for to play the "X" position opposite a guy like Harvin. Obviously, his production was awesome in 2012, and against West Virginia, he posted a monster 17-catch, 314-yard, two TD game in a 70-63 loss to the Mountaineers. And Williams did all this the year after Robert Griffin III and Kendall Wright left Baylor. Impressive.

Markus Wheaton (Oregon State - senior) 6'1, 182 pounds
2012 stats – 76 catches, 1,084 yards, 14.3 ypc, 10 Tds
Wheaton's been a productive player his entire career with the Beavers (love that nickname, by the way). He caught 73 passes as a junior and 55 as a sophomore. He's been timed running a 4.4/40. His listed weight of 182 pounds might concern some people, but the poundage listed on player profiles are usually what the player weighed coming out of high school, so he's probably heavier and stronger now and could handle the pounding WRs take in the NFL. Wheaton figures to be a guy who will be taken anywhere between rounds 2-4.

Cobi Hamilton (Arkansas - senior) 6'3, 209 pounds  
2012 stats – 90 catches, 1,335 yards, 14.8 ypc, 5 Tds
Hamilton looks like Viking 2012 draftee Greg Childs, but only faster and without the injury history. And from what I've read, he's exactly the kind of receiver the Vikings need – long arms, big catch radius, uses his body to shield defenders from the ball, a long strider who is deceptively fast ( in the 4.5 range). How he fares during pre-draft workouts will determine a lot, but it sounds like Hamilton will go late in the first round or, at worst, in the second round come April.

Quinton Patton (Louisiana Tech – senior) 6'2 195 pounds
2012 stats – 104 catches, 1,392 yards, 13.4 ypc, 13 Tds
The competition Patton faced will raise red flags, but his size and production can't be disputed. And Patton is no one-year wonder, as a junior he had 79 catches, 1,202 yards and 11 TDs for Tech. He's been timed in the 4.55 range, so he's not super fast, but I've read he runs good routes, can catch the ball in traffic and is a solid character player. NFL personnel guys will be skeptical of Patton's speed and ability to be productive at the NFL level, but he looks like a player who could go in rounds 3-4 right now.

Keenan Allen (California - junior) 6'3, 205 pounds
2012 stats – 61 catches, 737 yards, 12.1 ypc, 6 Tds
Allen's considered by some scouts as the best junior WR in college football. He's not a burner (he's been timed at 4.53 in the 40), but he plays faster than that, will catch the ball in the middle of the field and is good at gaining yards after the catch. Some NFL scouts might consider his 2012 a disappointment after a 98 catch, 1,343 yard and 6 TD 2011 season, but Allen missed Cal's final three games with a knee injury. He seems sure to be selected early in the first round of the 2013 NFL draft if he enters it.

Justin Hunter (Tennessee – junior) 6'4, 200 pounds
2012 stats – 73 catches, 1,083 yards, 14.8 ypc,  9 Tds
Hunter hasn't committed to entering the 2013 draft, but he has little left to prove after his 2012 season. Injuries dogged Hunter his previous two seasons, but he can run (timed at 4.49 in the 40), can jump, runs polished routes and has very good hands. As a star receiver who put up great numbers in the SEC, Hunter looks like a top 15-20 pick, which might mean he'll be gone before the Vikings are on the clock in April.

DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson – junior) 6'1, 200 pounds
2012 stats – 69 catches, 1,214 yards, 17.6 ypc, 16 Tds
If Hopkins enters the NFL draft, teams will be assessing a guy who isn't blazing fast (he's been timed at 4.56 in the 40) and wasn't even considered the best WR on his team (that title goes to sophomore Sammy Watkins), but who caught 16 Tds this year. Hopkins isn't considered a great route runner yet, either, but he's got big mitts and can make the tough catches. And he never caught fewer than 51 passes in his three years at Clemson.

Robert Woods (USC - junior) 6'1, 190
2012 stats – 73 catches, 813 yards, 11 Tds
Woods is actually one guy I have watched play this year – three times. I came away unimpressed. When the Trojans needed someone to make a play in the games I watched, they threw to Marqise Lee, not Woods. And Woods production was way down from what he put up in 2011 (111 catches, 1,292 yards, 11.6 ypc and 15 Tds), although an ankle injury that bothered Woods all year might have had something to do with his 2012 numbers. Still, Woods is a guy who probably gets picked no later than the second round if he enters the draft. He also brings value as a kickoff and punt returner.

Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt – junior) 6'3, 205
2012 stats – 87 catches, 1,262 yards, 14.5 ypc, 7 Tds
I wasn't able to find any scouting writeups on Matthews, nor have I seen him play, but his 2012 stats speak for themselves. So does his 6'3, 205 pound frame, which would look nice running post routes in purple and gold in 2013.  

Da'Rick Rodgers (Tennessee Tech – junior) 6'3, 206 pounds
2012 stats – 61 catches, 893 yards, 10 Tds
Rodgers put up the following numbers as a sophomore at the University of Tennessee – 67 catches, 1,040 yards and 9 Tds. But then he was suspended from the Vols prior to the 2012 season for violating team rules (Rodgers later admitted he failed drug tests) and he transferred to Tennessee Tech, who play in the Ohio Valley Conference. As a draft prospect with character concerns, I don't think he's a guy the Vikings draft in the first two rounds, he'd be more a fourth-round guy Rick Spielman takes a chance on. Rodgers probably won't last that long, however. One scouting report I read called him a "Julio Jones" clone with size, strength and explosiveness, and some NFL team will get intoxicated by his potential and measurables and pick him during the first two days of the draft.   

Cody Hoffman (BYU – junior) 6'4, 215 pounds
2012 stats – 90 catches, 1,134 yards, 12.6 ypc, 11 Tds
If he enters the 2013 draft, Hoffman is a guy to put in the memory bank for future reference. He's been very productive all three years at BYU and never caught fewer than 42 passes or seven Tds in a season. The scouting reports I've read on him say he's got some of the best hands in college football, has great body control and is a "smooth" athlete who makes tough catches look easy (kinda sounds like Cris Carter). The only downside – he is slow by NFL WR standards – timed at 4.63 in the 40. That will no doubt drag his draft status down whenever he enters, but assuming he declares for the 2013 NFL draft, he could also be a steal in the 4-6 round range for a Vikings team that needs all the wideout help it can get.

Coming off the Ledge: Leslie Frazier and Co. come up small in big game

To read Pacifist Viking's polite request of the National Football League in light of another predictable Vikings beatdown at Soldier Field, click here.

Last week I asked ESPN 1500's Tom Pelissero during an online chat what Minnesota Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier would have to do to keep his job beyond the 2012 season. Pelissero's response was as follows:

"I think it has less to do with how many wins they get to than how they get there. Does the coaching staff adjust to what teams are trying to do? Do young players keep ascending? Does the locker room stay together?"

Well, consider Leslie Frazier and the rest of his coaching staff minus 1 in those categories as the Vikings played (and lost badly) the first of a critical three-game stretch that will likely determine if they make the postseason or not.

We all know it's the players that make the plays on the field and against the Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon, the Vikings players rarely made any. But the coaching staff is responsible for preparing those players to make those plays. They are the ones who have to drill the players on fundamentals – things like catching balls that hit them in the chest and ball security. They are responsible for coming up with defensive and offensive schemes to exploit an opponent's weaknesses. And they are responsible for coming up with ways to counter what an opponent is doing if something isn't working during a game.

We saw none of that in the 28-10 loss to the Bears. This was really evident on the defensive side of the ball, as the Vikings were content to rush four guys at Jay Cutler most of the game, even as the Bears used six or seven guys to protect him. As bad of an offensive line as Chicago has, that's not the kind of odds many defensive lines can overcome. The Vikings defensive line was no exception, and Leslie Frazier and defensive coordinator Alan Williams had no answer for it as Cutler completed 74 per cent of his passes.

We also saw tactical blunders. Why did Frazier go for it on fourth-and-two at the Bears 18 yard line early in the fourth quarter when the Vikings were down 18 points and need a field goal at some point to cut into that lead and tie the game anyway? Some will say it was an aggressive call. I'll say it was a stupid call. I like Blair Walsh's chances of making a 28-yard field goal a lot more than I like Christian Ponder's chances of converting a fourth-down play with a pass on a day when the Vikings receivers could barely catch a cold.

And how do you leave for a big game on the road without ensuring Adrian Peterson is on the team bus? It is Peterson's fault that he was late, and that doesn't reflect well on him, but making sure all players are ready to get on the bus for a road game is one of those details a coaching staff should be on top of.

What's particularly bothersome is that the Vikings performance on the road under Frazier wasn't an anomaly. For the third straight road game (losses to Seattle and Washington are the others), the Vikings looked unprepared for the moment – outcoached and outschemed. The defense, which is Frazier's specialty, has been sieve-like in all three losses and the offense has been largely unproductive for long stretches of those games.

The Vikings have developed into a bad road team under Frazier. They are 1-4 this season and have grown increasingly uncompetitive in each road loss. This is a young team, for sure, and it's been showing that youth as of late. But with the right head coach, you could feel good about where the Vikings are right now and you'd have some faith that coach and his staff could turn this thing around.

But against the Bears at Soldier Field in a game that meant everything for Minnesota, the team and its head coach looked overmatched. What are the odds things get turned around next Sunday against Green Bay at Lambeau Field? Or the week after that at home against the Bears?

The clock is ticking on the Leslie Frazier era in Minnesota.

Coming Off the Ledge

Dear National Football League,

On behalf of all Minnesotans who travel over Thanksgiving break, I have a simple request. Please schedule the Vikings' annual game at Soldier Field for the Sunday after Thanksgiving each year. This way, Viking fans who travel don't need to worry about watching the game. We'll know exactly how the game is going to go, and we won't want to watch it, so we'll make our plans for trains, plains, and/or automobiles for Sunday afternoon with no regard for the Viking game.

The game is just going to feature perplexing turnovers, overmatched special teams, inept passing, bad officiating that is essentially negated by the fact that the Vikes never had a chance anyway, frighteningly bad pass defense, and players and coaches staring at what is happening as if it is completely beyond them how to do anything about it.

So please, let the Vikings play the Bears at Soldier Field every Sunday after Thanksgiving. We can concentrate on packing, get on the road quickly, settle back in at home, and vaguely look at a score to see just how bad it got.

Thank you,

Minnesota Viking fans who travel over Thanksgiving break

Vikings path to victory in Chicago means channeling their inner Dennis Green

As Pacifist Viking noted in his National Thanksgiving League post, Soldier Field has been a house of horrors for the Minnesota Vikings the past 10 years. They are 1-9 there in their last 10 trips to Chicago and have given up no fewer than 27 points in every game at Soldier Field since 2007. The Vikes have played so many stinkers at Soldier Field during this period that it's impossible for me to scare up any optimism they will be able to beat the Bears on Sunday - especially if wide receiver/ace kick returner Percy Harvin can't play.

Considering a Vikings win in Chicago would help their playoff chances immensely, I'm going to throw something out there – why not bring Dennis Green back as a "consultant" for one game? You can complain about Denny's playoff record during his 10 years coaching Minnesota (4-8). And you can moan about the shape he left the team in after he was fired with one game left in the 2011 season. But one thing Denny knew how to do was win at Soldier Field. In fact, the Vikes owned the Bears on the road during Green's tenure, going 8-2 at Soldier Field, including five wins in a row between 1996-2000.

I'm not kidding here. The Vikings have played so poorly at Soldier Field of late, what does head coach Leslie Frazier have to lose? Bring Denny in, have him give the troops a fiery pre-game pep talk about the good old days. Then maybe have him stand on the sidelines sticking a Bears voodoo doll with a few needles. I mean, am I crazy to think this is worth trying?

Other stuff

• Every week things happen in the NFL that don't make sense. Take the Vikings game against Detroit two weeks ago. Harvin couldn't play with his bum ankle, the Vikings were coming off a 63-yard passing performance by Christian Ponder and then they went out and scored 34 points (a season high so far) against the Lions. This is another game where the Vikings must defy conventional wisdom. This game is also a big test for Ponder. He's on the road. He's playing a tough, opportunistic defence (no matter how the Bears looked Monday against San Francisco) and the game has playoff implications. I don't think Ponder has to play great for the Vikings to have a chance in this game – a stat line along the lines of going 20-27 for 170-200 yards passing and no interceptions or fumbles would suffice. Those kinds of numbers would mean Ponder was making just enough plays with his arm to keep the Vikings offense from being one dimensional. And by not turning it over, Ponder wouldn't be scuttling Viking drives and giving the Bears offense extra possessions to put up points. When the Vikings turn the ball over and fall behind, they can't hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson as much, which isn't good because Peterson will be Minnesota's lone gamebreaker if Harvin can't play.

• Here are Peterson's running stats in his first four games against the Bears: 20-224-3 TDs; 20-78-2 TDs; 22-121-2 TDs; 28-131-1 TD. And here are Peterson's running stats in his last four games against the Bears: 25-85-1 TD; 24-94-2 TDs; 17-51; 12-39-1 TD.  

• Bears right defensive end Julius Peppers has a habit of playing pretty well against the Vikings. But when he's played well, it has been while facing Bryant McKinnie (mostly) and Charlie Johnson (last year). Vikings rookie left tackle Matt Kalil is not Bryant McKinnie or Charlie Johnson in the pass protection department. He's much, much better than those two guys and I feel reasonably good about him facing Peppers. If Kalil can win his frequent battles against Peppers, that will be very good news for Ponder. A relatively clean pocket to pass from will help Ponder's confidence when he's throwing the ball, I think. As we've seen at other times this season, when he's pressured consistently, he gets jumpy and nervous back there. A jumpy, nervous Ponder in the pocket is the guy who produces 63-yards worth of passing yardage – for an entire game. The Vikings won't win this game if Ponder plays that poorly.

National Thanksgiving League

Vikings-Bears Preview
The Vikings' chances of winning a game at Soldier Field are roughly horseshit to dogshit. It doesn't matter how good or bad the Vikings or Bears are. It doesn't matter if the Chicago QB is lousy. It will take transcendence from AP for the Vikes to win, and even then they might not. The last time the Vikings won at Soldier Field, Peterson had TD runs of 67, 73, and 35 yards, but the Vikings nearly blew the game by letting the immortal Brian Griese come back against them, but ultimately won when kick returner Adrian Peterson set up a closing field goal.

It doesn't matter how bad the Bears looked Monday (very, very bad).

As a Viking fan, I've been pretty incorrigible. I can convince myself any year that this is the year the Vikes win the Super Bowl, and I believe it until they are eliminated from playoff contention. But Soldier Field has broken me. Too many years I was convinced the Vikings were the better team (they often were) and would beat the Bears at Soldier Field, and too many times in too many ways I cursed for three hours before watching the Vikings walk off the field with a loss. I still believe the Vikes can win the Super Bowl this year: I'm willing to set myself up for disappointment and heartbreak. But not when it comes to Soldier Field. I expect to lose, I expect to lose ugly, and if the rare miracle of a Soldier Field win happens, then I'll just bask in exuberant stupid joy.

Other Interesting Games
Week 12 Games

Lions-Texans. After playing 72 minutes of football Sunday, the Texans get to go on the road and play Thursday morning. Good times. Since Gary Kubiak is trying to destroy Arian Foster's body and ruin a bunch of people's 2013 fantasy seasons early, I still expect Foster to get 28 carries.

Cowboys-Washington. If you have any Cowboys on your fantasy team, then you have grown to hate the Dallas offensive line.

Giants-Packers. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 32 times, or 8.3% of his pass attempts. Eli Manning has been sacked 12 times, for a league-best 3.2%. This partly reflects the teams' offensive lines, but it also shows one of those often overlooked aspects of quarterbacking, since quarterbacks do have a major role in avoiding sacks. In a game featuring defenses very good at rushing the passer, that advantage at QB could be the difference in the game. Watch to see if Rodgers ends up taking a lot of sacks, and if Manning is able to avoid taking sacks.

49ers-Saints. Another NFC playoff rematch.

Oh, blasphemers! 
The unclean are soiling the holy of holies! How can the unworthies with put their grubby hands on sacred relics? How dare they commit sacrilege against such revered blessed objects? The sin, the sin! (Pro Football Talk).

A view of the Minnesota Vikings playoff chances

Because I've got playoffs on the brain, and because I keep hearing how daunting the Vikings remaining schedule is, I decided to look at the schedules of the other NFC playoff contenders. There is no doubt the Vikings road to making the playoffs is tough. But is it any tougher than any other teams?

What follows is hardly an exhaustive statistical analysis, but what I'm doing below is looking at the schedules of two divisional foes – Green Bay and Chicago – and five other NFC teams with 6-4 or 5-5 records who are in contention for a Wildcard playoff spot. And I'll be comparing the record of the opponent's each of these teams are playing, as well as their home and away records, against the Vikings and making some quick observations based on those metrics.

Here goes nothing ...

Remaining Schedules

Vikings (6-4): @Chicago; @Green Bay; Chicago; @St. Louis; @Houston; Green Bay
Record of remaining opponents: 40-19-1
Home record: 5-1
Away record: 1-3

Division title contenders

Green Bay (7-3): @NY Giants; Minnesota; Detroit; @Chicago; Tennessee; @Minnesota
Record of remaining opponents: 31-27
Home record: 4-1
Away record:  3-2

Chicago (7-3): Minnesota; Seattle; @Minnesota; Green Bay; @Arizona; @Detroit
Record of remaining opponents: 31-27
Home record: 4-1
Away record: 3-2 

Wildcard contenders

Seattle (6-4): @Miami; @Chicago; Arizona; @Buffalo; San Francisco; St. Louis
Record of remaining opponents: 29-29-2
Home record: 5-0
Away record: 1-4

Tampa Bay (6-4): Atlanta; @Denver; Philadelphia; @New Orleans; St. Louis; @Atlanta
Record of remaining opponents: 36-23-1
Home record: 3-2
Away record: 3-2

NY Giants (6-4): Green Bay; @Washington; @New Orleans; Atlanta; @Baltimore; Philadelphia
Record of remaining opponents: 36-24
Home record: 3-2
Away record: 3-2

Dallas (5-5): Washington; Philadelphia; @Cincinnati; Pittsburgh; New Orleans; @Washington
Record of remaining opponents: 27-33
Home record: 2-2
Away record: 3-3 

New Orleans (5-5): San Francisco; @Atlanta; @NY Giants; Tampa Bay; @Dallas; Carolina
Record of remaining opponents: 33-24-1
Home record: 3-2
Away record: 2-3

Ok, now for a bit of context. What does all this mean?

If you look at this rundown of the playoff picture, you will notice that the Vikings would not make the playoffs if they started today. But the playoffs don't start this week, so there is time for the Vikings to get back into this thing – if they can win some ball games over the final six games.

That's not going to be easy. The schedule is as tough as advertised. The Vikings final six opponents have more combined wins (40) and less combined losses (19) than the remaining opponents of the seven other teams listed here. Another big concern – not only are the clubs the Vikings will be facing good, but Minnesota will be playing four of them on the road. The Vikings have not been a good road team this year (shocking, I know) and if you think 9-7 is the minimum it's going to take to at least snag a Wildcard playoff spot, the Vikings probably have to split their remaining four road games to finish with a 9-7 record. Can they grab even one win at either Soldier Field or Lambeau Field – venues where the Vikings have authored many stinkaroos over the years? And what are the odds they can beat 9-1 Houston on the road? Those will be tough, tough victories for the Vikings to get.

On the bright side, the safest path to getting into the playoffs is by winning the NFC North and the Vikings play four games against the two teams sitting one game ahead of them in the standings. Go 3-1 in their four games against the Pack and the Bears, and a surprising divisional title (and a home playoff game) could be waiting for the Vikings.

The other bright spot is those last two road games against the Rams and the Texans, which take place Dec. 16 and 23rd, respectively. I wouldn't call the Rams game an easy win for the Vikings because the St. Louis defense – especially its front four – could cause a lot of problems for Christian Ponder and the Vikings weak passing game. But the St. Louis offense is, overall, pretty tepid, and this is a game that if the Vikings play solidly and don't make a ton of mistakes, they should win. As for the Texans game, Houston could have the AFC South division already clinched by then (it currently has a three-game lead on Indianapolis). Just how much will Houston's starters play in this game if that's the case? I like the Vikings first-stringers over the Texans second and third-stringers if that is how it ends up going down at Reliant Stadium on Dec. 23rd.

But a guy can drive himself crazy thinking about all the "what-ifs" this time of the year. It's probably best just to enjoy the ride from here on in. However, if the Vikings do make the playoffs, nobody will be able to say they didn't earn it.

Kick Ass Blog moonlight's at The Viking Age

Dear loyal readers:

This week I started a regular guest column at The Viking Age site run by Dan Zinski.

If you're curious to read my  first piece over there, click here. My plan is to write one column per week over there. Why am I doing this? Really, I have no idea.

That's not true, of course. There is always a method to my madness. In this case, it's not an indication that I'm defecting to The Viking Age. It's simply an opportunity to write for a slightly different audience and to give this fine blog more exposure on the Vikings blogosphere.
 

Things Minnesota Viking fans aren't worrying about so far: the 2013 NFL draft

Sunday morning and afternoon, the Vikings fans I follow on Twitter and those who follow me @KickassblogVike were mostly preoccupied with the Detroit-Green Bay game, with some others keeping an eye on the Tampa Bay-Carolina contest as their favorite team had a bye week.

That attention came about because these fans knew losses by the Packers and the Bucs were positive developments for Minnesota's own playoff hopes. This is the sort of thing you want to to be focusing on if you're a football fan this time of year – the playoffs and the chance to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

For the Minnesota Vikings and their fans, this is welcome change from 2011 (and much of 2010 as well). At the 10-game mark last season, the Vikings were already 2-8, had abandoned the Donovan McNabb experiment and were heading into game #5 of the Christian Ponder era. And reality was hitting home: the Vikings were an aging, terrible team, full of holes and in need of a major overhaul.

At this point last season, our focus was on how Ponder was looking, but also on how high a draft pick the Vikings might land in the 2012 draft and whether the team should "suck for Luck" (or Robert Griffin III) and how any future wins over the final six games could damage the Vikes draft position in April.

What's been refreshing about the Vikings 6-4 record and contention for an NFC playoff spot is that I've heard barely a whisper from fans and the media that follows the team about the 2013 draft. The Vikings still have plenty of needs – wide receiver is the most obvious one, but defensive tackle and middle linebacker also need to be addressed next April and the team could use better depth at just about every position – but for now the team is playing competitive football most weeks and is winning more than it's losing. As fans, we're thinking playoffs, not who the team should pick in the NFL draft.

As we head into the final six-game stretch of the NFL season, it feels good to be among the living this late in the season instead of being one of the walking dead – like the Vikings have been the past two seasons.

(However, if you're curious who some NFL draft nerds think the Vikes will pick come April, I present you mock drafts here and here.)

National Friday League, Week 11

Vikings Bye Week Preview
At 6-4, the Vikings are better than you probably thought they were in the middle of August, and aren't as good as you probably thought they were in the middle of October. Some of their units are better than we thought (the secondary); some are even worse than we feared (those wide receivers!).

What I'm struggling to adjust to is the Vikings just being a decent team. They seem on their way to being average (indeed, Football Outsiders has them 15th in the league with a near-average -0.4% DVOA), a mediocre team that will probably finish right around .500 and miss the playoffs. The Vikings have been steeped in drama for so long, I don't even know how to be a fan of an average team. So many years have offered us high hopes and bitter disappointments, transcendence melded with tragic flaw. So many genres of theater have played out on and off the field for the Vikes--tragedy, farce, comedy, absurdism--that the Vikings can't be just a football team. They need to be a team that could be a Super Bowl contender but just needs a quarterback. They need to be a team that woos the one-time legendary rival, goes 12-4, and misses its first Super Bowl since the '76 season in an NFC title game featuring Shakespearian intensity and error. They need to be a team that crashes horrifically when it brings that quarterback back. They need to be a team that blows halftime leads in its first four games en route to going 2-9 in games decided by seven points or less in their worst season since Les Steckel. If the Vikings are a .500ish team, full of regular strengths and regular weaknesses, without surprises or explosions of personality, why are they special? And what makes our fandom unique? Obviously we have a history (a history that I think has psychologically damaged us collectively as a fanbase), but right now are we just like any other fanbase watching an OK team try to be better?

Of course with Adrian Peterson, they aren't just a football team. The '90s Lions would have been just a football team if they didn't have Barry Sanders, a player so wonderful to watch you could get excited for Lion games just to see him play. The Viking run blocking has often been terrific at getting Peterson into open space, and Peterson has been unbelievable and avoiding tacklers. The combination has been stunning, especially considering opponents have utterly no reason to fear a deep pass and can try to clog up space closer to the line of scrimmage. It is Adrian Peterson that is the central story of the Vikings' 2012 season, and in the end, he alone may be the story.

So the Vikings are out: what are we watching? (Interesting Games)
Week 11 Schedule

Packers-Lions. Twice a year I root for the Lions, and twice a year I'm terribly disappointed. After watching the Vikes complete a season sweep of the Lions, it's hard to believe I won't be disappointed again.

Chargers-Broncos. Philip Rivers is entering the late-Drew Bledsoe phase of his career: a quarterback that was always good but never quite great, that had a lot of team success on good teams, but has a certain sloppiness to his game, and eventually plays well enough to stay a starter for a long time, but not well enough to impress anybody while doing it.

Colts-Patriots. This is a game between 6-3 teams that I should think is interesting, but sort of don't. Watching Andrew Luck is just going to make me jealous, and the Patriots have made me jealous for a decade now.

Ravens-Steelers. The game for those of you who ever asked, "Hey, what ever happened to Byron Leftwich?"

Bears-49ers. The game for those of you who ever asked, "Hey, who is Jason Campbell?"

MVP Monitor
After 10 weeks of football, it is time to begin monitoring the Award For Best Quarterback or Running Back On a Playoff Team, also known as the NFL MVP.


1. Drew Brees. If Brees ends up leading the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns and takes the Saints to the playoffs despite a terrible start, terrible defense, and everything else, this award is his.

2. Adrian Peterson. The only thing holding Peterson back is that "On a Playoff Team" requirement. If Peterson continues to average 112.8 rush yards per game and 5.8 yards per rush, and the Vikes get to the 9-10 wins, it will be hard to deny him (especially since it will take some heroic performances against some good teams for Peterson to get the Vikes to those 9-10 wins).

3. Peyton Manning. I don't know that MVP voters are going to vote for a 5th MVP for Manning (it would actually be four and a half, but whatever), but I thought they wouldn't vote for a 4th, either. If the Broncos end up with a #1 or #2 seed in the AFC, people are going to want to give him this award.

4. Aaron Rodgers. I don't think about Aaron Rodgers outside of when the Vikings are playing the Packers. This is not entirely easy, as I work in Wisconsin. It also means I don't have anything to say, other than that Rodgers looks like an MVP candidate.

Kick Ass Links
Viking fans, ladies and gentlemen! (City Pages, and again)

I think I would like knowing Steve Young. I think he'd probably hate me (Yahoo!).

Your Minnesota Viking punter, ladies and gentlemen! (MinnPost)

Weekend
Recover well, Darren. Have a good weekend everybody.

Trailing Clouds of Heaven: Free Jarius Wright

To read Pacifist Viking's take on the Vikings 34-24 win over Detroit on Sunday, click here. 

I've never played a down of organized football in my life. I have no technical "X-and-Os" knowledge of the game culled from coaching years of youth league or any league. And I certainly don't get to watch the Vikings players every day in practise, nor do I pour over game film and dissect their every move like the Vikings offensive coaching staff does.

Nevertheless, some things seem so self-evident that you don't need all that stuff to make the right decision for the football team. So I'm at a loss to explain what Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier is thinking when he said today there is no guarantee rookie wide receiver Jarius Wright will dress for the Vikings next game against Chicago on Nov. 25.

We've read all year that the Vikings lack wide receivers who can beat defenders one-on-one and make plays down the field. We've observed that during the games, too. So why would the Vikings coaching staff even entertain the thought of not playing Wright two weeks from now – even if Percy Harvin is back in the lineup – on the road against a Bears team that features a very tough defense.

It's true that Wright got the lion's share of his production against Detroit during a three-play sequence early in the first quarter. But it was a notable sequence. What I saw on the critical 54 yard catch by Wright on that drive was the rookie accelerate by the Lions linebacker who was dropping into coverage in the middle of the field. He then ate up the ample cushion Detroit Safety Eric Coleman had to defend the deep throw and ran past him. Then he had to – at full speed – throttle down slightly to catch a slightly underthrown ball by Christian Ponder. It was a heck of a play, and a play Michael Jenkins, Devin Aromashodu and Stephen Burton could not make.

Wright only caught three passes the entire game. But he still made a play. And it was a big play. And now the Vikings coaching staff is debating the merits of suiting up the rookie against Chicago?

I don't get it.

KAB progamming note 

As we enter the Vikings bye week, the activity here at Kick Ass Blog might be a little slower than usual.

You see, in late August I found out I had prostate cancer. That was a bit of a surprise for a 43-year-old guy who is pretty active and takes care of himself reasonably well. The good news is that I'm a 43-year-old guy who is pretty active and takes care of himself reasonably well. The cancer has been caught early and recovery is expected to go swimmingly – with a 99 per cent chance I'll cancer-free a few years down the road.

But in order for that to happen, I'll be going under the knife Tuesday morning. And the surgery is going to put me out of blogging commission for most of this week, I think.

Pacifist Viking and TBird might be able to pick up some of the slack, but expect this site to be updated a little less than usual over the next seven days. But I'm going into the surgery happy, thanks to the Vikings win over the Lions. I'll also be off work for a few weeks recuperating from surgery, so I'll be blogging like a motherfucker during that period.   

Trailing Clouds of Heaven: Vikings 34, Lions 24

Vikings-Lions Box Score (Yahoo!)

It is nice that in the final Vikings-Lions game ever played in the Metrodome, the Vikings continued a tradition by beating the Lions in the Metrodome. The Vikings played a complete game, performing soundly in every area.

Without Percy Harvin, the Vikings needed to find a passing game with other receivers, and they found it. It started early with Jarius Wright, and you can't underestimate how important it is for the Vikings to find a dynamic young wide receiver. Wright did little after the first drive, but showed promise. And the Vikes made a clear effort to involve Kyle Rudolph more, throwing to him nine times, which he turned into a 7-64-1 day.

Defensively, the Vikings had a gamer's effort at containing the Lion passing game. The Lions are a team that try chuck it deep mostly whenever they want, and today they were very successful at it (Calvin Johnson did have 207 yards). But the Vikings contested passes, hit receivers hard, and tackled well to prevent yards after the catch.

But once again, it is Adrian Peterson playing brilliantly. With 171 yards rushing today, Peterson has averaged 157.25 rushing yards over his last four games. Today he got help from the passing game, so the Vikes scored 34 points.

At 6-4 going into the bye week, the Vikings have been inconsistent but competitive. But now they've given us just enough hope they can compete to the very end of the season. The final stretch of the year has the chance for excitement rather than despair.

Skol, friends! The Vikings beat the Lions in Thunderdome.

Know thy enemy – the Detroit Lions

I've been trying all season to get a blogger who follows the Vikings weekly opponent to submit a  post that gives us a view of that opponent from someone who follows the team religiously. After several emails to various bloggers (all of them answered,), I finally got one response from NetRat, a Detroit Lions fan and blogger who runs NetRat's Lion's Blog. NetRat was kind enough to whip up a short post on how he sees the state of the Lions as they face Minnesota at the Metrodome on Sunday. (To read my take on the Vikings that's up on his blog, click here). You'll be shocked to read that NetRat thinks the Lions are a team on the rise and that the Vikings are distinct underdogs in this game – even though they are playing at home.

The 4-4 Detroit Lions play the 5-4 Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon in Minnesota. At their last meeting the Lions lost the game primarily due to special teams. Since the bye week (the week after the Vikings game) the Detroit special teams have begun to play a much more solid game.

In fact, since that bye week, the Lions have started to improve in every facet of the game. The playcalling is becoming much less predictable, special teams is playing far better, the defense is playing much tougher, and Matthew Stafford has begun to step into his throws a little more often … the better his mechanics the more accurate his throws.

This is what I wrote about the Lions after the last Vikings game, and even though there are still some ups and downs throughout the games, overall the Lions are performing much better - making them much harder to beat.

For the Minnesota Vikings to have a decent chance at winning this game they will need to once again outplay the Lions special teams and Adrian Peterson will have to, more or less, carry the team on his shoulders. With the improved play of tackles Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, Sammie Lee Hill and the rest of the Detroit defensive line, that will be a tall order for Peterson. I predict that AP will be fortunate to hit 100 yards this game. For that matter Christian Ponder may not have that many passing yards either.

Still, there is hope for Vikings fans. The Detroit Lions aren’t yet consistent enough to guarantee a positive result in any game. My predictions are more often than not incorrect as various players find new ways to mess up. Not all game long, just a critical play here and another there. If the Vikings can take advantage of the Lions mistakes this game could easily result in a divisional sweep for them this year.

-NetRat (www.theNetRat.com)

National Friday League, Week 10

Saying Farewell to Thunderdome (in lieu of a Vikings-Lions Preview)
Here's a thing to start thinking about: this is the last Vikings-Lions game ever to be played in the Metrodome

The Vikings have only three more games ever to be played in the Metrodome. Those games are against the Lions, the Bears, and the Packers, those long-time NFC Central and NFC North foes. And then that's it. Just memories.

The Vikings have been trying to replace the Metrodome for so long you might have forgotten that it is a building that has provided us with some memories. Memories that...  Memories that... Hmm. A lot of those memories have sucked, actually. Lots of good ones too, but a team that went to four Super Bowls in its first 17 years of existence never made it to the Super Bowl in its entire Metrodome era.

Still I sort of love the building. I usually get to games very early (much to the chagrin of some of the people I've attended with), and I've wandered all over the place, inside and out. I've watched games from close seats (I saw an Antoine Winfield special--sack, forced fumble, fumble recovery, touchdown--from a few seats behind the end zone), and I've watched games from very far back (during my year of season tickets, I sat with my back to the wall). I've seen some of the best players in NFL history. I've seen records broken.

The Dome has been an iconic building for Minnesota. I'll miss it. And I want the Vikes to get some more Ws there.

It's uncanny how much Adrian Peterson runs like Gale Sayers
Adrian Peterson's open field running reminds me of all those old slow motion highlights of Gale Sayers. His vision and instincts about where to cut to find space are remarkable. When he gets around the edge, he often sees space back in the middle of the field and cuts back. He may have lost some of his speed, but none of his agility, his vision, or his football instincts. In the open field, defenders just don't know what he's going to do, and aren't quick enough to stop him when they figure it out.

I'm serious, kids: watch this video and tell me you don't think you're seeing Adrian Peterson.

Free Joe Webb
There were several good responses to my argument to FREE JOE WEBB, which ultimately boil down to the Vikings' need to play out Ponder for the season as planned, make him prove his unworthiness for the position, so that the Vikes can reassess the position in the offseason. I think it is a good argument. But still, I say FREE JOE WEBB.

My basic contention is this: in a game that Adrian Peterson dominated but the Vikings still needed a passing game, Christian Ponder threw for 63 yards, showed no pocket presence, and looked unable or unwilling to stand in the pocket for a moment--and this game was not an aberration. He played like he played in the majority of games this season. He has now stunk in four straight games. Is it a necessity to let him play out the season to know what he can do? Because right now, he can't play.

I think it's entirely possible that Ponder could turn out something like Rich Gannon, somebody who later in his career could get into the right situation and be a good NFL quarterback. He has some of the tools. But right now, he doesn't, and I don't see how he'll show those tools this season. He'll be playing out the season just to show what we've already seen.

Ponder has had two good games this season (San Francisco and Tennessee), with some nice clutch play in one more (Jacksonville). The rest of the time he's looked largely inept. Have those (let's say) two and a half games out of nine justified his continuing play?  In my view, they haven't.

But I'm an erratic, emotional fan. It's not my job to make reasonable decisions about the Vikings' long-term or short-term strategic planning. The entirely reasonable thing to do is for them to play out Christian Ponder for the year. I didn't apply for a position with the Vikings that requires me to be reasonable. The prospect of watching more 63 yard passing games from a QB that looks ready to bail on a play at the slightest sign of a pass rush for seven more games this season makes me frustrated and bored. As a fan, I can rant against the team's decisions that will leave me frustrated and bored!

The long-term approach to QB
Since Daunte Culpepper's reign, the Vikings have largely gotten burned with short-term veteran fixes at the QB position. Occasionally it has worked OK or great for a little while before flaming out (Brad Johnson, Brett Favre), and occasionally it has immediately flamed out (Donovan McNabb). This left the Vikings over-committed to drafting a young QB to commit to and build around. They are trying it with Christian Ponder.

I have a small worry and a big worry about this. The small one is that after being burned with the veteran QBs, the Vikes might stick with their young fix for longer than they should. OK, that happens sometimes. But here's my big worry.

Finding a quality starting quarterback in the NFL is hard. There are not 32 good quarterbacks alive right now: there may not be 15. It takes a combination of luck, scouting, and strategy to get a quarterback that is even decent as your team's starter. Sometimes teams get lucky by getting an early draft pick during a season with a can't-miss prospect (Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan). Sometimes teams have a combination of luck and smarts when a good veteran becomes available as a free agent (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees). Sometimes team have a combination of luck and smarts when they have an unheralded prospect emerge from the depth chart to stardom (Tom Brady, Tony Romo). And often teams don't have luck or smarts, but end up with a QB that is good enough to keep them competitive for the most part (Joe Flacco).

There's no one way to find a competent starting quarterback, and there's no one way to find an elite starting quarterback. I hope the string of Brad Johnson, Gus Frerotte, Brett Favre (it worked for a year!), and Donovan McNabb doesn't give the team long-term creeps about trying to sign a veteran quarterback. If Ponder does indeed flame out, the answer may not be to go into the 2013 draft trying to find another first-round QB to try build around--that seems like a strategy that really will waste the prime of one of the NFL's greatest running backs of all-time. If the possibility of acquiring another veteran QB--not a 39 year old, sure, but maybe a 31 year old--makes itself clear (even Joe Flacco!*), the Vikes should still try it.

Getting a quarterback is hard. It might take a bunch of failures before you get it right, and you might have to compromise on competent while you wait for (or try to get) elite.

*Go buy gin now.

Other Interesting Games
Week 10 Games

This is not a terrific week for interesting games: only once will teams with winning records play each other this week (Texans and Bears, both 7-1, Sunday night so we can see it). Of course this is one reason to play fantasy football: all the games are interesting. Monday Night the 5-3 Steelers are going to pummel the 1-7 Chiefs (who are way worse than their record), but I'm starting Mike Wallace and the Steeler D (I picked them up just to play against the Chiefs!), so I'll be watching with great excitement.

The Commercial Life
Do you ever notice that cell phone commercial where that guy is looking at his phone, and it keeps flashing him to all these different locations, and no matter where he is, what's around him, what sort of interesting or beautiful or interesting settings he finds himself in, he's just staring at his phone. His whole life is going on, and he's staring at a little electronic thing in his hand. This is how they sell phones to us now?!? Get our phone, so you can ignore the world and miss all the cool things you're doing?

Kick Ass Links
Our punter celebrates (as do I) (Slate, City Pages).

How the sports media--which generally embraces or at least understands advanced statistical analysis--is ahead of the political media (The New Republic).

Weekend
Have a good one, suckers. Except Lion fans.

Where have you gone, Kyle Rudolph?

Two, 17 and 0.

Those are Minnesota Vikings starting tight end Kyle Rudolph's pass catching totals (catches, yards and TDs,respectively) the past three games. Ugly numbers, aren't they?

We read a lot during the offseason about how Rudolph was going to emerge as a pass catching force in his second year in the NFL. With his 6'6 height, long arms, jumping ability and meat hooks for hands, Rudolph was going to be a safety outlet for quarterback Christian Ponder – a beacon who could guide Ponder through those rough spots when nobody else was getting open, a target the second year QB could rely on when everything else was going to hell.

But Rudolph hasn't been that guy the past three games and what we're learning is that he is more of a complimentary player than a go-to type. He's a guy – because of the physical gifts I cited above – who is going to shine in a multifaceted offense that has other receiving options that take a defense's attention away from him. What he isn't going to do, but what the Vikings are asking him to do because they've got no other options, is be a playmaker even when defense's are designing ways to take away what he does best away.

So when I read tweets or comments from Vikings fans wondering why the Vikings coaching staff can't get Rudolph involved in the passing game lately, I think they're making an error. The Vikings are trying to get him involved, but there is a lot going haywire right now. Ponder is playing poorly, so drives aren't being sustained and he doesn't trust himself to throw to Rudolph when there is tight coverage. The offensive line has struggled in pass protection, so Rudolph's being asked to stay in and block a bit more than he did earlier in the season. And besides Percy Harvin, there is no wide receiver who can take the opponent's focus off of Rudolph. Add all that up and you get a Kyle Rudolph who has become irrelevant in the Vikings offense, which isn't ideal for a team that's got plenty of other players on the offensive side of the ball that are already irrelevant.

Crazy things I'd like to see
Sunday after the Vikings 30-20 loss to Seattle, Pacifist Viking called on the team to "Free Joe Webb."

I'm not in favor of the Vikings replacing Ponder with Webb. I do think, however, this week's game against Detroit is an opportunity to at least use him a bit. Webb is the best athlete on the Vikings roster and the team has tried to find unique ways to use that athletic ability the previous two seasons. This season, he hasn't had that kind of role, as the team wants him to concentrate on being a quarterback.

But with the Vikings looking like they will have to play Detroit without Harvin on Sunday, some trickery and outside-the-box gameplanning might be required to give this offense some juice. And Webb could be that juice.

It is a tricky thing exposing your only other QB (the Vikings have dressed two QBs all year) to injury by using him on some gadget plays. I'm intrigued with the idea of working on four or five plays featuring Webb to give the Lions some different looks and things to worry about. I really like the idea of running a couple of reverses with Webb giving him the run/throw option. And the reason I really like the idea is because of this equation: Joe Webb = explosive play potential.

Coming off the Ledge: About that Vikings defense ...

To read PV's take on the Vikings 30-20 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, click here. 

Although it is mighty tempting, I will not bash the performance of Vikings second-year quarterback Christian Ponder, as my KAB colleague Pacifist Viking has (see above). In fact, I don't think Ponder was the guiltiest party in the 30-20 loss to the Seahawks (although he helped a great deal). No, this loss I blame more on the defense.

How could I write such a thing? Well, hear me out.  

Yes, Ponder was brutal. He looked confused and scared, the complete opposite of the confident and controlled player whose play was one reason the Vikings got off to a surprising 4-1 start. But as badly as Ponder struggled in this game, the Vikings offense scored 17 points in the first half – pretty good production for this offense in 30 minutes of football. And it did one thing very well – run the ball.

By comparison, the Vikings defense did nothing well, which has been the norm during this four game stretch where the Vikings have lost three games. Once again, the unit didn't tackle well. Players often weren't in the gaps they needed to be in. The defensive line and linebackers, especially the interior lineman, got pushed around (the Vikings defensive front seven should have just lined up three yards behind the line of scrimmage all game because that's where they ended up on most Seattle run plays anyway). It didn't force any turnovers (again). It got little pressure on Seattle's rookie quarterback Russell Wilson and Seahawk receivers were frequently wide open. (Wilson completed 16-24 passes, good numbers, but I counted at least five dropped passes that probably should have been caught.)

Let me stress this again – Ponder was terrible. The passing game was terrible. But the Vikings could have still won this game, if the defense hadn't played an even poorer game than Ponder and the offense, and if it had given that offense the ball back enough to feed a brilliant Adrian Peterson more. That defense got dealt a bad hand when Percy Harvin fumbled the ball and Seattle recovered it at the Vikings 17 in the first quarter. But the unit offered little resistance in protecting an early 7-0 Vikings lead – there was a three yard run by Marshawn Lynch, then an eight yard run by Lynch, then a six yard touchdown pass from Wilson to Golden Tate for the tying touchdown. Easy, peesy.   

However, what was more worrying than that series was how many long drives the Vikings gave up and when they gave them up. The Seahawks next drive was nine plays and 72 yards for a TD. The Vikings offense answered with a TD on their next drive, thanks mostly to Peterson. And after a rare Vikings defensive stop of a Seahawks drive following that score, the Vikes briefly took a 17-14 lead. Seattle took the lead right back, though, going on a 10 play, 80 yard drive that took only 4:41 to complete.

It happened again in the second half. The Seahawks second possession resulted in a nine play, 72 yard TD drive. And then with the Vikes down 30-20 with just over five minutes left and needing to get the ball back to have any chance of coming back, the Seahawks ran out the clock with a 12 play drive that featured 10 running plays (yes, Wilson scrambled twice on pass plays, but still ...), one pass play and one kneel down. The Vikings knew Seattle was going to run the ball here. Seattle knew the Vikings knew they were going to run the ball. And Minnesota's D still couldn't do anything to stop it. That hurts. A lot.

So we know Ponder has to play a lot better if the Vikings are going to reverse this slide. The wide receivers are going to have to get open more and the offensive line is going to have to figure out how to neutralize the blitzes it is facing. Still, the defense has got to hold up its end, too. In three of the last four games opponent's have scored 36 (Washington), 36 (Tampa Bay) and now 30 (Seattle) points. That ain't getting it done.

At some point, the Vikings might also have to look at whether the 4-3, Tampa 2 base defense it's used since 2006 is the right way to go. Players make schemes look good. But this defense sure seems pretty easy to figure out. It rarely generates turnovers and it's a poor blitzing team – when it blitzes, which isn't that often. It might be time for a change in defensive philosophy this offseason: go to a 3-4, a 2-5, a 1-6, something. That will probably require a coaching change, however, which is a blog post for another day.    

Coming Off the Ledge: Seahawks 30, Vikings 20

Vikings-Seahawks Box Score (Yahoo!).

You can be forgiven if you think you are watching the '07 Vikings.
Through the first eight games of this season, Christian Ponder's first half stats have been modest at best: 8 games,  798 yards, 6.33 yards per attempt, 3 TDs. And today, as the FOX broadcast showed, the Vikings had 31 net pass yards in the first half.  This was en route to Ponder's 63 passing yards today.

This, even more than the defensive struggles (the early season was a mirage: the defense isn't good), is how the Vikings squandered Adrian Peterson's superhuman effort today (10.7 yards per rush, avoiding tacklers every which way, displaying such incredible vision and instincts and athleticism, looking like Gale Sayers cutting in the open field). They cannot throw the ball for squat. And that's why if 2012 matters, it may take something radical.

Free Joe Webb
If the Vikes are going to have games when they simply cannot gain passing yards, when they are completely inept at advancing the ball down the field with any sort of forward pass, when they simply cannot pick up first downs with anything resembling a downfield throw, then they need to do something radical. How much worse could they be with Joe Webb? He would be able to gain at least as many passing yards as Ponder has (I'd expect more), and he'd gain yards through the run.

What would benching Ponder for Webb this season mean for Viking QB future? Who the hell knows. But what does playing Ponder and watching him be entirely ineffectual mean for the team's QB future? Who the hell knows.

I still think the poor personnel at the wide receiver position is largely responsible for the struggles of the Viking passing game. But so what? If winning games in 2012 matters, and if the Vikes don't have WRs that can separate and catch, then that is all the more reason to put in a QB that is capable of gaining yardage without the help those wide receivers (they can help--they can downfield block).

I mean, in a game in which the Vikings were close but also down, and needed to be able to pass, they had 63 yards. When you try to forget that we've been through the Tarvaris Jackson era and got accustomed to the Vikings' inability to pass the ball, it starts to be absurd.

It starts to be untenable.

FREE JOE WEBB!

Percy Harvin aims for a record

Back in 2007 when I foolishly started the Grant's Tomb blog, there were a few Vikings sites I visited regularly because I liked what their bloggers had to say. Some of those blogs are no longer active and Defensive Indifference, which was written by Jason Winter, is one of them. A few months ago I tracked down Jason and tried to get him to join the Kick Ass Blog team. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to convince him. But Jason, who has shifted to blogging about gaming at Wintry Mix, agreed to whip up a guest post for our site in the not-too-distant future. Well, the future has arrived. In this post, he focuses on one of my favorite topics – Percy Harvin. 

The Vikings are 5-3. That's good.

The Vikings' remaining eight opponents have a combined record of 38-22, or a .633 winning percentage. That's bad.

And over the past three weeks – two of them losses – the Vikings have looked downright ugly.

Eight games into the season, it's easy to get down on the team right now, but it's even easier to forget all that negativity and make full-season projections – especially when they point to a Viking player having a realistic shot at an NFL record.

Percy Harvin, as you're no doubt aware, has been spectacular. He runs, he catches, he returns kicks – he flat out racks up yards, maybe at a rate nobody has ever done.

Through eight games, Harvin has 72 rushing yards, 667 receiving yards, and 535 kickoff return yards. That's a total of 1,274 all-purpose yards, tops in the league. To project that over 16 games, you just double the number and you get 2,548 yards.

How good is that? Only seven men have ever managed more than 2,500 APY in a season, and 2,548 would give Harvin the fourth-best total of all time. Harvin would need 149 more yards to overcome Darren Sproles' record-setting total from last year and claim the record for himself, cementing himself as the best all-around single-season yardage-gainer in NFL history.

But even if he falls short, he still might be better than the numbers indicate.

Consider this: Harvin has 15 kickoff returns this year, and the Vikings have 20 as a team. The NFL average is a shade over 19 per team, which charts out to an average of 38 per year. Last year, it was about 43.

But in 2010, when kickoffs were at the 30-yard line and not the 35, the average team returned 63.5 kicks. In 2009, it was 62.6. In 2008, it was 66.1. That averages out to about 64 per team over that three-year period, which is 64% more than what we've seen in 2011-12.

Granted, the returns themselves in 2011-12 have been a little longer – about 1.5 yards per – because players are taking them out from deeper in the end zones than they used to. Taking that into account, we can determine that, if Harvin had been returning kicks at the rate and distance that teams generally did in 2008-2010, then he'd manage 1,647 kickoff return yards – good enough for 10^th on the all-time list.

Now, combine that number with his pro-rated rushing and receiving yards, that would total an astounding 3,125 all-purpose yards in 2012.

Making the same adjustment for Sproles' 2011 season, we get 3,283 yards – still not enough to knock him off his perch. But it would blow away every other player's season. And, if Harvin can find a way to sneak in those extra 149 yards, maybe we won't need this kind of mathematical kerjiggering in the first place.

Now, isn't that a much better thing to look forward to than the Vikings' upcoming schedule?

National Friday League, Week 9

Vikings-Seahawks Preview
Vikings
Seahawks

In my view, the best thing the Vikes have going for them in this game is that Seattle is starting the wrong quarterback. Matt Flynn might be legitimately good: in his fifth year, he has a 92.8 passer rating on his 132 pass attempts. The Seahawks are starting rookie Russell Wilson, even though they don't have to. They are a team that ranks 3rd in points allowed but 28th in points scored, and it's quite possible their best QB right now is watching games from the sideline. They have a good defense and can win now, but they are starting a rookie even after they paid Flynn a wad of money to come try the job. So while I'm terrified of the Seahawk defense (like, terrified, man), I feel the Vikes have a fair shot to win the game because their quarterback might have a terrible game.

I'm not terribly convinced that anybody should worry about Seattle's purported homefield advantage. Maybe it exists, but the Seahawks have been mediocre-to-bad for long enough that the overall quality of the team and its performance hasn't been something to fear. If the homefield advantage is something that has boosted its performance, that's still there in the data on the overall performance.

But at this point, I feel the Vikes could win or lose any game they play. The defense has been inconsistent--this season we've seen the defense dominate and be dominated, so it will be hard to be shocked by either on a week to week basis--but it is the offense that makes the the team such a week to week question mark. Adrian Peterson could be a dominant force, carrying the offense with just enough catch-and-run from Percy Harvin--or teams could completely smother the short-throws-then-run pass offense the Vikings run, largely rendering Peterson's gains inconsequential on stalled drives. Christian Ponder has done enough to for us to know he can play good games, but he's been futile enough for us to know we can't rely on it (yet, anyway). Is it even worth trying to guess which weeks the offense will work, which weeks it won't? I'm not even entirely sure the quality of the defense is the major factor.

Is this Adrian Peterson's finest season?
Halfway through the season, Adrian Peterson is once again a superstar workhorse running back on a team that struggles to throw in a passing league. He is averaging 96.9 rush yards per game, which would be his second-best average of his career. He is averaging 5.1 yards per rush, which would also be his second-best average of his career (from a different season). He hasn't had fewer than 80 yards from scrimmage in a game yet.

If this keeps up and Peterson manages to drag this offense into the playoffs, then I think 2012 will top 2007 and 2008 as Peterson's signature season. We are watching an all-time great running back at the peak of his powers. That's sometimes hard to appreciate during games, watching as we are with anxious tension and worry: if we watched him play with a lot less interest in the game's outcome, we might be able to sit back in awe. The truth is I can' think of another running back I've seen in 2012 that does the things Peterson does: not Arian Foster, not Ray Rice, not anybody else. And this in a season that, after his December injury, it was legitimate to wonder if he would be able to contribute much at all.

Other Interesting Games
Week 9 Games

Broncos-Bengals. I've decided to go with the Peyton Manning-Willis McGahee fantasy combo (pushing Ahmad Bradshaw to the bench). When a team has a spectacular offense, this can be a fun wan to go: you're getting all those points. I can barely contain my awe at Manning anymore: he's the best QB I've seen in my football-watching lifetime (which starts prominantly during the 1992 season playoffs).

Bills-Texans. The Bills are giving up 6.0 yards per rush attempt. This is insane! Can you even fathom this? In their last four games, they've given up an average of 234.25 rush yards per game. Do you think Adrian Peterson can hold off contenders for the rushing title when he doesn't have the Bills on his schedule but guys like Arian Foster do? Will the Texans attempt 20 passes this weekend? Will they have to?

Steelers-Giants. Inter-conference games are exciting when they feature two of the era's best teams, and these two teams have combined for four of the last seven Super Bowl wins. Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger is a legitimately interesting discussion.

Cowboys-Falcons. What do you want from a night game that features two teams you don't care who wins? A fantasy bonanza. Each team has two WRs and one TE starting in most leagues--just about every completed pass will be fantasy relevant.

Eagles-Saints. What do you want from a night game that features two teams you don't care who wins?  A fantasy bonanza.

Fantasy Box: Sometimes in life, the gods smile upon you my friends
I can assure you, there are many instances in my fantasy sports career when I overthought things to very ill effect. But when you overthink something and it pays off, it is a beautiful thing.

Last week I needed to pick up a waiver wire WR to start, which is generally a miserable experience in a competitive league where most semi-valuable players are stashed on rosters. But here's what I knew about Chris Givens: going into his week 8 game against the Patriots: he caught a 50+ yard pass in four straight games. And here's what I knew about the Patriots from listening to announcers during their games: they suck at defending the deep pass, giving up way more 20+ yard completions than anybody else.

The result: Chris Givens caught a 50 yard touchdown pass early in the game. He ended with 63 yards and a TD. Those 12.3 fantasy points were as much as one could hope for from a fantasy waiver wire starter. I don't need Givens anymore, and can't rely on him.  But it's a moment when one doesn't outright loathe fantasy football, so it is worth feeling good about.

Weekend
November is upon us, my friends.